| Clearly he will win the vast majority of the African-American vote, about 26%. I also think Rep. Meek can draw a very high percentage of the youth vote (under 35). This would get him up to about 35%.
 But unless you have four or more people running in the primary, that's not going to be enough to guarantee a win. As it stands right now, if Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio got in the race, I think she would win the primary (40% to Iorio, 35% to Meek, 25% to Gelber).
For Meek to win he would need to learn how to attract the constituency that many people said was President Obama's strongest supporters, middle-aged white liberals (or financially comfortable old hippies as some of us self-identify). When then state senator Obama redrew his own district in the reapportionment of the Illinois state house in 2002, he cut out the piece that was Bobby Rush's congressional district and added in the Gold Coast section of Chicago.
From my short exposure to Rep. Meek at a recent Meet and Greet, I don't think he's fully learned yet how to go about garnering the support of this important demographic. Now, he is a favorite of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and we know that former President Bill Clinton is a mentor and personal friend, so on a one-to-one basis he is clearly capable of doing so.
But, as many have pointed out, he's never run a state-wide race before.
The major appeal that President Obama has with this key group of voters is how he symbolizes a post-racial ideal that is emotionally very powerful to many of us. So why doesn't Rep. Meek do the same? This is a tricky question.
Maybe I can use an anecdote to shed some light on it.
After he gave a short speech at the Meet and Greet, Rep. Meek asked for questions. Of course my hand went right up. I had been thinking about Al Lawson's challenge to Allen Boyd in my own FL-2 so this is what came out, "State Senator Al Lawson, when he recently announced that he was running against Congressman Boyd, mentioned that he favored term limits for congress. Do you support a constitutional amendment that would mandate term limits for congress?"
Rep. Meek said "No, I believe in democracy. People can vote their representative out when they're ready for a change."
Now, this is a perfectly acceptable answer. Certainly I also believe in democracy, but I also believe in Human Nature. To me, term limits are a simple way to protect against demagoguery and the corruption of entrenched power. Sort of a checks and balances type thing.
When I thought about Congressman Meek's answer later I realized it made a lot of sense from a history of racist disenfranchisement of African-Americans and the resulting distrust in the black community about anything that might be seen as such. But, that's obviously not post-racial and might be a knee-jerk reaction of Rep. Meek caused by his coming from a majority-minority district.
 So how come Al Lawson is touting congressional term limits? Well, one, it serves his political purpose to do so since it highlights that Rep. Boyd has not been receptive to many of the Democrats in the district and is perceived as being "out of touch."
Also, here in Tallahassee, we in the city limits have a history of electing black politicians without having to resort to district voting (which was necessary at a county level). I believe this might act to soften that distrust about the issue of term limits.
But, just on a practical level, I would like to use this minor incident to lift up to Rep. Meek how he might improve his campaign style. If a member of this target demographic (like me) asks a question, he might not want to answer so quickly in the negative.
A better response would probably have been, "Well, in the past I've always believed that voters themselves can provide any term limits they desire, but maybe I need to talk to Sen. Lawson and see what he had in mind. I'm always open to learning something new."
I need to point out here that neither Rep. Meek nor St. Sen. Gelber have really made clear what the theme or slogan of their campaign might be. I don't see where they are going to have any policy differences on the major issues that will be before congress in the coming years.
So, what kinds of things can a primary campaign hinge on? Well, certainly the ability to beat the Republican opponent in the general election would be a big one. Of course, if it's Marco Rubio, all we have to worry about is the Democratic primary.
But what if Crist or even Mr. Deep Pockets Vern Buchanan or Connie Mack IV makes a go of it.
What I have been touting as a way to beat even the strongest Republican candidate (like Crist) is for all of the statewide Democratic candidates to run a unified campaign under the slogan of Taking Back Democracy from lobbyists and an unresponsive legislature.
When I first wrote that I was only thinking in state terms. But now I realize I also need to include the very real issues that all of us have with congress. There's a reason its ratings are so low. None of us trust it since we see how lobbyists are still controlling a lot about how our taxes are spent. Now, it's a different set of lobbyists than the Republicans had, but, where are the real transparency and openness and accountability that we all seek.
Simply because a bill is on-line doesn't solve the issue of who made what closed door deal to get their own particular piece of the action in the final version.
Is either candidate ready to stand up and run against congress itself? President Obama campaigned on Hope and Change. Each of the presently declared candidates are trying to identify themselves with the president's mantle, but which one is really going to deliver change?
Rep. Meek, will it be you?
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