Crist, Rubio "bombshell" poll results (Updated)

by: Florida Politics

Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 17:59:18 PM EST

"Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 11/16-18. Likely voters MoE 4% (1/26-28 results)":

Charlie Crist (R) 47 (57)
Marco Rubio (R) 37 (4)

"That's a 43-point swing in the last 10 months. Dramatic"

"These trendlines are bleak for Crist, and there's little chance of him surviving."

Remember, Rubio hasn't spent a dime on media yet. This is all grassroots driven, and the teabaggers are engaged, angry, and looking for the next Scozzafava. Crist is in their crosshairs, and the governor has been flopping all over the place hoping to stem this growing tide against him, and failing. Note -- 50 percent of Republicans still don't know who Rubio is. The more he raises his name ID, the better he does.  

We decided to see how Crist would perform in a general election as a Republican, Democrat, and Independent ...

"FL-Sen: Bombshell results".

"These trendlines are bleak for Crist, and there's little chance of him surviving a Republican primary. Remember, Rubio hasn't spent much on media yet. This is all grassroots driven, and the GOP base is engaged, angry and looking for the next Scozzafava. Crist is in their crosshairs, and the governor has been flopping all over the place hoping to stem this growing tide against him (and failing). Note - 50 percent of Republicans still don't know who Rubio is. The more he raises his name ID, the better he does."

"Little chance?" Certainly could be true, but it ignores the fact that Florida's U.S. Senate contest is a media race (i.e., he with the most money and name ID wins. And that's likely Crist). This isn't a chicken-dinner teabag retail politics race like a puny House contest in New York. Also, expect Crist camp to get real mean, real quick with Rubio. So just because Rubio raises money doesn't mean he'll continue poll climbing.

The Crist camp has some work cut out for it: Rubio's stewardship of a pork-filled budget (that Crist took a veto ax to), his use of proviso language to help a friend, an intriguing home loan deal, his post-employment consultancy with a hospital that he steered money toward, etc.

But right now, Rubio's camp and candidacy is tighter and more disciplined than Crist's. Plus, the governor needs to learn to stop fibbing about his relationship with President Barack Obama.